Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
